Tropical Depression Fourteen in Caribbean Is a Weekend Threat to Cancun and a Texas, Louisiana Threat Next Week

Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm soon and will impact parts of Mexico before reaching the western Gulf of Mexico, where it faces an uncertain future, but could affect parts of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts next week.

The center of this system is less than 300 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. It’s located well to the west of Tropical Storm Laura, which is a separate system tracking through the Atlantic.

Tropical Depression Fourteen is generating widespread showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds in the western Caribbean Sea, occasionally wrapping into the Cayman Islands, Honduras, Nicaragua, western Cuba and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.

This system has turned toward the northwest and a decrease in its forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of days. It will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday.

Strengthening is likely and it is expected to become a tropical storm soon. The next Atlantic tropical storm name is Marco.

A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning are in effect for portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Herrero northward to Cancun, Mexico.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for the Bay Islands of Honduras. Tropical storm conditions are still possible there Friday.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula from north and west of Cancun to Dzilam. This means that tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours.

This system is forecast to approach the Yucatan Peninsula as a strong tropical storm, or possibly a hurricane, by late Saturday.

Strong winds and flooding rainfall are possible impacts in the Yucatan this weekend, potentially including Cancun and Cozumel.

Three to six inches of rainfall, with isolated totals of 10 inches, are possible in the Yucatan Peninsula. Eastern Honduras can expect two to four inches of rainfall, while northeastern Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands could receive up to 2 inches, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Beyond that, the forecast is quite uncertain.

The future tropical storm is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. It could approach parts of the western or northern U.S. Gulf Coast by Tuesday.

The latest National Hurricane Center forecast calls for this system to be a strong tropical storm, then a hurricane as it moves through the western Gulf of Mexico. This intensity forecast, however, is uncertain since it remains to be seen whether upper-level winds will be favorable or unfavorable for strengthening.

In addition, this system could interact with what is currently Tropical Storm Laura.

It’s simply too early to know what impacts this system might bring to the United States next week.

All interests in the western Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. and Mexican Gulf Coasts should monitor the forecast closely. Check back frequently with us at weather.com for updates in the days ahead.